The Minnesota Twins defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 7-6 on March 8, 2026, at Lee Health Sports Complex, erasing a deficit in the late innings to claim a win the DiamondIQ model ultimately gave a 100 percent final probability. Minnesota entered as a slight favorite at 54 percent pre-game home win probability, but the game shifted dramatically across several pivotal moments before the Twins secured the outcome.
The decisive swing came in the top of the seventh inning, when Felix Reyes connected on a home run off Justin Topa that added 40.0 percent win probability for Philadelphia, briefly turning the game in the Phillies' favor. That blow proved to be the single largest win-probability play of the contest. Minnesota answered in the bottom half of the seventh, where Ryan Kreidler's home run off Jonathan Hernández added 18.1 percent win probability for the Twins, helping erase the damage. Minnesota had also built momentum in the sixth, when Kody Clemens laced a triple off Trevor Richards that swung win probability 18.7 percent in Minnesota's favor. The Twins then closed it out in the bottom of the ninth, with Emmanuel Rodriguez drawing a walk off Jack Dallas worth 19.0 percent win probability, followed by Gabriel Gonzalez's sacrifice fly off the same pitcher that added another 16.9 percent and plated the winning run.
Felix Reyes led all position players in win-probability impact, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-42.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.8, though his effort ultimately fell on the losing side. Kody Clemens posted plus-23.5 percent WPA and plus-2.1 RE24 for Minnesota, while Emmanuel Rodriguez contributed plus-23.1 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Marco Raya led Minnesota's staff with plus-13.5 percent WPA, followed by Alex McFarlane at plus-10.9 percent and Kody Funderburk at plus-10.6 percent, a collective effort that kept the Phillies' late surge from being enough.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.