The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Seattle Mariners 6-3 on March 8, 2026, at American Family Fields of Phoenix, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability to a final 100 percent as Milwaukee pulled away decisively over the middle innings.
The game turned on a pivotal fourth inning in which Milwaukee erupted for four runs. The single biggest play of the contest was a home run by Ethan Murray off Troy Taylor that shifted win probability by plus 30.4 percent, the largest single swing of the afternoon. Andrew Vaughn added a double in the same frame off George Kirby worth plus 7.2 percent. Seattle had briefly answered in the top of the second when Leo Rivas connected on a home run off Kyle Harrison, a swing worth plus 7.7 percent, to give the Mariners their first lead. However, Milwaukee's bottom of the second had already seen Murray ground into a forceout off Kirby that cost the Brewers 8.5 percent in win probability, a sequence that made his fourth-inning explosion all the more decisive. Jake Bauers extended the Milwaukee advantage in the fifth with a home run off Josh Simpson worth plus 8.1 percent.
Murray finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 21.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.9, while Vaughn checked in at plus 11.2 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24. Rivas led Seattle's contributors at plus 9.0 percent WPA and plus 1.9 RE24 despite the loss. On the mound, Jacob Misiorowski led all pitchers with plus 11.8 percent WPA, followed by Kirby at plus 10.2 percent and Jared Koenig at plus 7.0 percent, with Seattle's pitching staff unable to contain Milwaukee's middle-inning surge.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.