The Cleveland Guardians and Colorado Rockies played to a 4-4 tie on March 8, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, a back-and-forth spring training contest that never produced a winner despite a flurry of late-inning drama. Cleveland finished with 5 hits and 4 runs while Colorado matched that run total on 9 hits, each team committing one error. The DiamondIQ model entered the game estimating a 54 percent probability of a Rockies win, but that figure collapsed to 0 percent at the final out as the draw left both clubs without a decision.
The decisive swings came late and in bunches. Colorado built its early advantage with single runs in the second and third innings, then Cleveland erupted for three runs in the sixth, with Juan Brito delivering the pivotal blow — a single off Konner Eaton that represented a 20.6-percentage-point swing in win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Rockies answered with a run in the eighth, when Nicky Lopez singled off Erik Sabrowski for a 19.1-point swing that brought Colorado back even. The ninth inning was the most volatile frame of the afternoon: Dom Nuñez singled off Ryan Miller in the top half for a 39.4-point swing, pushing Cleveland briefly into a decisive position, only for Troy Johnston to answer in the bottom half with a single off Jack Jasiak worth 23.2 points, and Andy Perez's groundout added another 18.4 points as Colorado secured the equalizer.
Dom Nuñez was the game's most impactful individual, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-41.0 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.1, his ninth-inning single serving as the single largest play of the contest. Nicky Lopez was second in overall win-probability contribution at plus-25.1 percent with an RE24 of plus-0.7, and Troy Johnston added plus-21.2 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Victor Juarez led Cleveland's relievers with a plus-10.2 percent WPA contribution, followed closely by Tim Herrin at plus-9.7 percent and Cade Smith at plus-7.9 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.