The San Francisco Giants handed the Chicago Cubs a 9-5 defeat at Sloan Park on March 8, 2026, steadily eroding what the DiamondIQ model had opened as a 54 percent home win probability for Chicago down to zero by the final out. The Giants scratched across single runs in the first and fourth innings before the game turned decisively in the fifth and sixth. Parks Harber delivered the biggest blow of the fifth, connecting for a home run off Corbin Martin that swung win probability 20.1 percent in San Francisco's favor. Chicago responded in the bottom half, where Moisés Ballesteros singled off Blade Tidwell to push the Cubs' chances up 18.3 percent, and Dansby Swanson followed with a double that added another 13.1 percent, briefly keeping the home side within reach.
The Giants answered with the game's single most impactful swing in the top of the sixth, when Buddy Kennedy launched a home run off Connor Schultz that shifted win probability 25.2 percent toward San Francisco and effectively broke the game open. Eric Haase applied the finishing touch in the eighth with another home run, this one off Brooks Caple, worth a 16.7 percent probability swing that pushed the Cubs beyond any realistic path to recovery. San Francisco put up four runs in the sixth and three more in the eighth to close out a dominant 13-hit, error-free performance.
Kennedy led all position players with a 24.1 WPA and 1.6 RE24, while Swanson posted the top RE24 among batters at 2.0 alongside a 22.0 WPA. Ballesteros was nearly as impactful on the Cubs' side at 21.8 WPA and 1.9 RE24, but the Chicago offense could not sustain its fifth-inning momentum. On the mound, Keaton Winn paced all pitchers with a 17.5 WPA, supported by Vince Reilly at 9.5 and Luke Little at 5.8, as the Giants' staff held together through nine innings to secure the road victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.