The Athletics defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 11-7 at Hohokam Stadium on March 8, 2026, in a game that was closer than the final margin suggests through the early innings before Oakland pulled decisively away. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for the Athletics, and by the final out that estimate had reached 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly Oakland took command by the late stages.
The turning point arrived in the bottom of the fifth, when Leo De Vries connected on a home run off Carson Hobbs that represented the single biggest swing of the game, adding 28.7 percent win probability for the Athletics. Oakland had already built a modest cushion through the first four innings, but the De Vries blast broke the game open decisively. The Athletics extended their lead further in the eighth inning when Clark Elliott delivered a single off Jordan Weems that added another 22.2 percent win probability, capping a four-run frame that effectively ended any realistic path back for Los Angeles. Andy Ibanez contributed a key double off Hobbs in the sixth inning as well, producing a 13.4 percent win-probability swing that bridged the two pivotal innings.
De Vries finished as the game's top offensive performer by both WPA and RE24, posting figures of plus-29.7 percent and plus-4.8 respectively, while Ibanez added plus-21.7 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24. Nick Senzel also contributed positively at plus-11.2 percent WPA and plus-2.1 RE24. On the mound, Justin Wrobleski led all pitchers with plus-20.3 percent WPA, followed closely by Zane Taylor at plus-18.9 percent, with Paul Gervase adding plus-9.8 percent as Oakland's pitching staff limited the damage from a Dodgers lineup that managed nine hits but committed one error in the loss.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.