The Cincinnati Reds rolled past the Arizona Diamondbacks 13-4 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 8, 2026, turning what opened as a competitive game into a decisive rout. The DiamondIQ model entered the day estimating a 54 percent home win probability for Cincinnati, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Reds authored a dominant performance built on timely hitting and sharp pitching.
The game's single most consequential moment came in the bottom of the fifth, when Will Benson launched a home run off Shawn Dubin that swung win probability 23.6 points in Cincinnati's favor. That blow effectively broke the game open after Arizona had pulled within striking distance with LuJames Groover's RBI double off Emilio Pagán in the top of the fourth, which had represented the Diamondbacks' best swing at momentum, adding 12.5 percentage points to their win probability. Groover struck again in the top of the sixth with another double, this time off Luis Mey, worth 9.8 points, but Cincinnati answered immediately in the bottom half as Carlos Jorge delivered a triple off Junior Fernández for a 9.2-point swing, helping the Reds plate five runs in the inning. Arizona also hurt itself, as Óscar Mercado's ground into a double play in the second inning cost the Diamondbacks 7.4 points of win probability against Brady Singer.
The standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's accounting were Benson, who finished at plus-21.1 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, Groover at plus-18.3 percent and plus-1.1 RE24, and Jorge at plus-9.3 percent and plus-1.1 RE24. On the mound, Singer led all pitchers with plus-10.8 percent WPA, followed by Tony Santillan at plus-6.3 percent and Ryan Thompson at plus-4.5 percent. Arizona's three errors compounded its offensive struggles as the Reds finished with 14 hits and committed no miscues in the convincing nine-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.