The St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins played to a 2-2 tie on March 8, 2026, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, a game the DiamondIQ model entered giving the Marlins a 54 percent home win probability before settling to zero at the final out. Miami built its early advantage in the third inning when Griffin Conine hit a home run off Andre Pallante, a swing that added 11.2 percent to the Marlins' win probability. St. Louis answered in the seventh, and the Cardinals threatened to push ahead before Lake Bachar induced a double play off the bat of Dakota Harris in the top of the eighth, a sequence that cost St. Louis 14.9 percent in win probability and kept the game knotted.
The most consequential sequence came in the bottom of the ninth. Gerson Moreno entered for St. Louis and allowed Graham Pauley a triple in the seventh that had already swung the game 12.7 percent in Miami's favor, but Moreno recovered in the ninth when Juan Matheus struck out, a result that added 14.0 percent to St. Louis's standing. Moments later, Kemp Alderman grounded into a double play off Moreno, a swing of negative 17.5 percent against the Marlins' chances, ending any hope of a walk-off win and preserving the tie. On the mound, Ryan Gusto led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-19.1 percent, followed by Zach Brzykcy at plus-13.5 percent and Andre Pallante at plus-12.0 percent despite surrendering the Conine home run. Among position players, Matheus and Pauley were the most impactful by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, combining for over 26 percent in win probability added across the two clubs.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.