The Washington Nationals defeated the Houston Astros 3-1 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 8, 2026, in a game that remained scoreless through the first four innings before a pair of home runs and a critical seventh-inning rally decided the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 54 percent home win probability for Washington, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the final out.
Houston struck first in the top of the fifth when Cam Smith connected for a solo home run off Orlando Ribalta, a swing that shifted win probability 12.7 points in the Astros' favor and gave them a 1-0 lead they would carry into the seventh. Washington answered decisively in the bottom of that inning against J.P. France, with Abimelec Ortiz delivering a single that added 8.3 points of win probability before Ronny Cruz provided the game's defining moment, a home run that swung win probability 30.3 points toward the Nationals and put Washington ahead 3-1. Cruz finished as the game's top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting plus-30.3 percent and plus-2.0 respectively, while Cam Smith ranked second at plus-19.1 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24.
On the pitching side, Hunter Brown led all pitchers with plus-17.7 percent WPA, followed by Andrew Alvarez at plus-13.9 percent. Washington's Griff McGarry added plus-8.1 percent WPA in relief despite a two-out threat in the top of the eighth, where Tommy Sacco Jr. drew a walk that shifted 7.3 points toward Houston before Brice Matthews ended the inning on a pop out, a play that cost the Astros 10.5 points of win probability and effectively closed the door on any Houston comeback.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.