The Chicago White Sox handed the Seattle Mariners a 5-1 defeat at Peoria Stadium on March 7, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Seattle win dropping from 54 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by game's end. The White Sox managed 10 hits against Seattle's staff while committing 2 errors defensively, but the pitching and timely hitting proved more than enough to neutralize a Mariners offense that stranded opportunities throughout the contest. Chicago pushed across a run in the fifth, then broke the game open with two more in the seventh before adding two additional runs in the eighth, while Seattle's lone tally came in the bottom of the eighth against Lucas Sims.
The decisive swing of the game came in the seventh inning, when Mariners hitters compounded matters against themselves. Brock Rodden grounded into a double play in the sixth that cost Seattle 11.9 percentage points of win probability off Alexander Alberto, and Rhylan Thomas followed suit with another double-play ball in the seventh off Sims, dropping the Mariners another 11.1 points. Those self-inflicted wounds coincided directly with Chicago's two-run seventh, where Andrew Benintendi singled off Michael Rucker for a plus-8.0 percent swing and Dru Baker doubled to add another 7.7 points. Brian O'Keefe drew a walk from Sims later in the frame worth 5.9 points as the White Sox extended their cushion.
On the individual ledger, Davis Martin led all pitchers with a plus-15.6 percent WPA contribution, followed by Logan Gilbert at plus-13.9 percent and Alexander Alberto at plus-7.9 percent. Among hitters, Benintendi finished as the game's top offensive performer at plus-14.2 percent WPA and plus-0.7 RE24, while Dustin Harris posted plus-10.1 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.6 RE24, and Baker rounded out the top three at plus-8.2 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Mariners' inability to convert opportunities, particularly those twin double plays, as the clearest turning point in what became a comfortable Chicago victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.