The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Minnesota Twins 3-2 at Ed Smith Stadium on March 7, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game was scoreless after Minnesota scratched across a run in the first inning until the bottom of the sixth changed the complexion entirely. Heston Kjerstad drove the decisive blow, a home run off Connor Prielipp that swung Baltimore's win probability by 28.7 percent and represented the single most impactful play of the afternoon. Prielipp surrendered another damaging hit in the seventh when Coby Mayo doubled to push Baltimore's advantage, a swing of 16.6 percent in win probability that effectively put the game out of reach.
Minnesota made a late push in the top of the seventh, where Brooks Lee ripped a triple off Dietrich Enns for an 11.2 percent win-probability swing, and the Twins mounted further pressure in the ninth when David Bañuelos doubled off Zane Barnhart to add 20.4 percent in win probability and bring Minnesota within one. However, Marek Houston's lineout to end the threat cost the Twins 13.8 percent in win probability and ended any realistic hope of a comeback. Barnhart finished the ninth to close it out, finishing with a 15.2 percent WPA contribution among Baltimore's pitching staff.
Kjerstad led all position players with a final WPA of plus-25.2 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Bañuelos posted plus-20.4 percent WPA despite his team's loss. Brooks Lee added plus-15.8 percent WPA in a strong individual effort. On the mound, Mick Abel was Baltimore's most valuable arm by win probability, posting a plus-23.7 percent WPA, with Yaramil Hiraldo contributing plus-10.8 percent in support.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.