The Colorado Rockies defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 at Camelback Ranch on March 7, 2026, erasing a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate of a 54 percent home win probability for Los Angeles and leaving the Dodgers with no path back by game's end. Colorado did its most decisive damage in the fifth inning, plating four runs to extend what had already been a lead built on three Dodgers runs in the second. The Rockies finished with six runs on eight hits and committed no errors, while Los Angeles stranded opportunities despite collecting 12 hits on the night.
The single biggest swing of the game came in the top of the fifth, when Brenton Doyle singled off Blake Treinen to shift win probability by plus-21.1 percent in Colorado's favor. That moment anchored Doyle's night as the game's top performer by both WPA and RE24, finishing at plus-20.0 percent and plus-1.8 respectively. Los Angeles mounted its most credible threat in the sixth, when Teoscar Hernandez singled off Sean Sullivan to generate a plus-10.3 percent swing for the Dodgers, and Hernandez ended as the game's second-most impactful batter at plus-12.2 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. Ryan Ritter also contributed positively for Colorado at plus-8.2 WPA.
Colorado's bullpen ultimately sealed the result, with Adam Laskey delivering the strongest pitching performance of the game at plus-14.8 WPA. Laskey induced a strikeout from Ryan Fitzgerald in the eighth that swung win probability minus-16.4 percent against Los Angeles, then handled Noah Miller with another strikeout in the seventh at minus-11.0 percent. A Griffin Lockwood-Powell forceout off Laskey in the ninth carried a positive-11.1 percent swing for the Dodgers, though it proved too late to matter. Sean Sullivan and Ben Casparius also contributed positively for Colorado at plus-6.6 and plus-5.8 WPA respectively, combining with Laskey to hold off a Dodgers lineup that generated volume but not enough concentration of damage to overcome the fifth-inning deficit.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.