The Cleveland Guardians handled the San Diego Padres 7-1 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 7, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Cleveland scored in the first, fourth, and fifth innings, with the bulk of the damage coming in a four-run fifth that put the game firmly out of reach. San Diego managed ten hits but converted just one run, committing two errors that further complicated their day.
The single most decisive moment came in the bottom of the fourth when Rhys Hoskins connected on a home run off Michael King, a swing that added 21.6 percent to Cleveland's win probability and served as the turning point of the afternoon. Earlier in that same inning, San Diego had a chance to respond but Ty France grounded into a double play off Slade Cecconi, costing the Padres 8.7 percent in win probability and snuffing out any momentum. The Padres' most productive offensive sequence came in the top of the third, when Bryce Johnson singled off Cecconi for a gain of 8.1 percent in win probability, and Nick Solak added a double in the fifth worth 7.1 percent, though neither rally produced more than a run.
Hoskins finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus-25.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.5. Bryce Johnson contributed a WPA of plus-9.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.0 for San Diego, while Kyle Manzardo added a single in the fifth that registered plus-5.7 percent WPA and plus-0.6 RE24 for Cleveland. On the mound, Slade Cecconi and Daniel Espino both posted strong numbers for the Guardians, contributing plus-6.0 percent and plus-5.9 percent WPA respectively, and the model leans toward crediting the Cleveland pitching staff as the primary driver of what became a comfortable wire-to-wire victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.