The New York Mets defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-2 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 7, 2026, handing the home side a loss after the DiamondIQ model's estimate had opened with the Cardinals holding a 54% win probability before first pitch. The Mets scored in three separate innings — the second, sixth, and seventh — while St. Louis answered with single runs in the third and one additional frame, never managing to draw even in the late stages. The Cardinals committed two errors on the night against a Mets lineup that posted a clean defensive performance, and the visitors carried a one-run edge into the final frame with their bullpen locked in.
The ninth inning produced the game's most significant probability swings and ultimately settled the outcome. Andy Yerzy delivered a single off Jack Wenninger that swung win probability 23.2 points in the Cardinals' favor, representing the home team's last genuine threat to tie. However, Ryan Mitchell followed with a fielder's choice out that shifted win probability 25.8 points back toward New York, the single largest WPA event of the game, and Colton Ledbetter's strikeout to close the inning added another 18.8-point swing in the Mets' favor. Jose Rojas had earlier provided a pivotal moment in the seventh inning, when his fielder's choice off Brycen Mautz swung win probability 22.7 points toward New York and helped the Mets extend their advantage.
Among individual performers, Yerzy led Cardinals batters with a +19.5% WPA despite the team's defeat, while Ledbetter's strikeout still registered as a positive for New York at +18.8% WPA and Wyatt Young contributed a +16.5% WPA mark alongside a +0.8 RE24. On the pitching side, Jack Wenninger paced the Mets' staff with a +14.8% WPA, supported by Kyle Leahy at +13.7% and Austin Love at +12.3%, a collective bullpen effort that absorbed the Cardinals' late push and preserved the one-run final.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.