The Houston Astros defeated the Miami Marlins 5-4 on March 7, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches in a game that remained competitive deep into the ninth inning before Houston held on for the win. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving Houston a 54% pre-game win probability, and that estimate climbed to 100% by the final out. The scoring was concentrated in a three-inning stretch, with both clubs trading runs through the fifth, sixth, and seventh before the Marlins mounted a late challenge that ultimately fell short.
The game's decisive sequence began in the bottom of the sixth, when Walker Janek launched a home run off Cade Gibson that shifted win probability by 26.2 percentage points in Houston's favor, representing the single most impactful swing of the game. Janek finished as the contest's top performer by WPA at plus-33.1%, backed by a plus-1.7 RE24, underscoring how central his contribution was to the Astros outcome. Miami did not go quietly, as Jay Beshears delivered a double off Anthony Maldonado in the top of the ninth worth plus-30.2% WPA, briefly keeping the Marlins alive, and Matthew Etzel had contributed a key single off Jayden Murray in the fifth that added 17.0 percentage points to Miami's win probability. Jacob Berry drew a walk off Alimber Santa in the seventh worth 16.3 points, and Collin Price singled off Nigel Belgrave in the bottom of the ninth to close the gap to one, but Houston would not surrender the lead.
On the mound, Sam Carlson was the most impactful Houston arm, contributing plus-24.3% WPA, while Chris Paddack added plus-12.0% and Jason Alexander chipped in plus-8.2%. Miami finished with 11 hits to Houston's 10, and both clubs committed one error, but the Marlins could not convert their offensive volume into enough runs. The final line stood at 5-4, Houston, with the model's estimate reflecting certainty at game's end.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.