The San Francisco Giants defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 7-4 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 7, 2026, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 54 percent pre-game Arizona win probability all the way to zero by the final out. San Francisco built the bulk of its advantage in two key innings, scoring three runs in the third and two more in the fifth to push beyond Arizona's reach before the Diamondbacks could mount a sustained answer.
The third inning was the decisive turning point. Will Brennan's single off Kohl Drake shifted win probability by 13.6 percent in San Francisco's favor, and Jesus Rodriguez followed almost immediately with a double off Drake worth another 13.4 percent, a back-to-back sequence that effectively reoriented the game's trajectory. Jean Carlos Sio added a single off Hayden Durke later in the frame for another 9.1 percent swing, and the Giants were firmly in control. Brennan returned in the fifth to deliver a double off Kade Strowd that added 12.7 percent, effectively closing the door on any Arizona recovery. Arizona's best offensive moment came in the bottom of the fourth, when Jose Fernandez doubled off Nick Margevicius for an 8.7 percent swing, but the Diamondbacks could not string together the kind of multi-play sequence San Francisco had produced.
Individually, Brennan finished as the game's most impactful batter at plus-26.3 percent WPA and plus-2.4 RE24, while Rodriguez contributed plus-16.1 percent WPA and plus-2.1 RE24. Fernandez paced Arizona at plus-13.3 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24. On the mound, Nick Margevicius led Giants pitchers with plus-6.3 percent WPA, supported by JT Brubaker and Paul Sewald at plus-4.2 percent each. San Francisco finished with ten hits and no errors against Arizona's seven hits and clean fielding in a game that was largely decided before the middle innings arrived.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.