The Toronto Blue Jays shut out the Philadelphia Phillies 1-0 at BayCare Ballpark on March 7, 2026, with all the scoring and nearly all the drama compressed into a single ninth inning. Through eight frames the game was scoreless, with Toronto managing just five hits and Philadelphia two against a parade of pitchers. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Philadelphia entering the game as a 54 percent favorite, and that edge held through the middle innings before Toronto dismantled it in the final two half-innings.
The decisive sequence began in the top of the ninth against Génesis Cabrera. Sean Keys drew a walk that shifted the win probability 12.6 points in Toronto's favor, and Jonatan Clase followed with a forceout that added another 13.5 points. Rafael Lantigua then delivered the game's only run with a double, the single most impactful offensive play of the afternoon at plus-17.5 win-probability points, pushing Toronto ahead 1-0 and swinging the model's estimate decisively. Philadelphia's best counter-chance came in the bottom of the ninth when Connor Seabold struck out Christian Cairo to close out the game, a moment the model registered at plus-21.4 points for Toronto given the tightness of the situation, and it stood as the highest-WPA individual play of the contest. Earlier, a Yohendrick Piñango double play in the top of the seventh off Zach McCambley had cost Toronto 15.9 win-probability points, briefly stalling any offensive momentum.
On the pitching side, Lazaro Estrada led all players with plus-19.2 win-probability points added, followed closely by Max Scherzer at plus-17.7. Daniel Harper contributed an additional 10.6 points as Toronto's staff combined to hold Philadelphia to two hits and a lone error without allowing a run. Lantigua and Cairo paced Toronto's offensive contributors by WPA at plus-17.5 and plus-17.7 respectively, while Clase added plus-13.5. The model's estimate finished at zero percent for Philadelphia, a reflection of how completely the Blue Jays' late execution settled a game that had offered the Phillies a statistical advantage from first pitch.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.