The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-2 on March 6, 2026, at TD Ballpark, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate ultimately assigned a 100% win probability by game's end after opening the day with Toronto as a 54% favorite. The margin was built primarily on a decisive fourth inning in which the Blue Jays scored five runs, effectively turning a competitive game into a rout. Pittsburgh had briefly cut into the proceedings in the top of the fourth when Dominic Fletcher connected on a home run off José Berríos, a swing that shifted win probability by 10.9 percentage points in the Pirates' favor, but Toronto answered emphatically before the inning was over.
The pivotal moment of the game came in the bottom of the fourth, when Nathan Lukes launched a home run off Pittsburgh reliever Jarod Bayless that swung win probability by 36.0 percentage points in Toronto's favor. That single swing was the defining blow of the afternoon. Lukes finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-38.5 percent and an RE24 of plus-3.4. Later in the same inning, Riley Tirotta worked a walk off Bayless worth 5.4 percentage points of win probability, and Josh Rivera followed with a single that added another 8.4 percentage points, compounding the damage. Toronto added a run in the seventh and three more in the eighth to close out the scoring.
On the mound, Bubba Chandler was the standout for Pittsburgh in a losing effort, contributing plus-10.4 percent WPA, with a notable moment coming in the bottom of the second when he induced a strikeout of Rafael Lantigua that shifted win probability by 5.4 points against Toronto. Tyler Rogers and Jorge Alcala each added plus-5.0 percent WPA in relief for Pittsburgh, though the collective pitching staff could not contain Toronto's offense after the fourth inning opened the floodgates.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.