Milwaukee pulled away from Arizona at American Family Fields of Phoenix on March 6, 2026, winning 6-2 behind a largely quiet game that broke open in the sixth and seventh innings. The Brewers entered with a 54 percent win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, and that figure climbed steadily to a certainty as Milwaukee's offense did its damage in the middle frames. Both teams traded single runs in the first, combining for just two runs through five innings before Milwaukee's bats came alive against the Arizona bullpen.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the sixth, when Luis Lara delivered a double off Juan Burgos that shifted win probability by 16.8 percentage points in Milwaukee's favor, and Jesús Made followed with a run-scoring single off the same pitcher for an additional 11.4-point swing. That two-run frame gave the Brewers breathing room, and Mike Boeve finished the conversation in the bottom of the seventh with a home run off John Curtiss that added 21.5 percentage points to Milwaukee's win probability, the single most impactful play of the game. Arizona's best chances to claw back were snuffed out by stranded baserunners, with Jacob Amaya's flyout in the fourth and Modeifi Marte's groundout in the eighth representing the two most damaging outs for the Diamondbacks at negative 5.9 and negative 6.3 percentage points respectively.
On the pitching side, Bryce Jarvis led Milwaukee's staff with a plus-13.0 WPA contribution, with Mitch Bratt and Will Childers adding 10.1 and 8.5 points respectively as the three combined to keep Arizona's lineup largely in check across the final innings. The Diamondbacks managed eight hits but two errors undercut their efforts, and their inability to string together runs in key moments allowed Milwaukee to convert a modest early lead into a comfortable four-run victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.