The St. Louis Cardinals handed the Baltimore Orioles a 10-2 defeat at Ed Smith Stadium on March 6, 2026, a result that erased Baltimore's 54 percent pre-game win probability from the DiamondIQ model entirely by the final out. The Cardinals produced 13 hits without committing an error, while Baltimore's lone miscue contributed to a lopsided afternoon that saw St. Louis pull away through the middle innings and add a final two-run cushion in the ninth.
The game turned decisively on Albert Suárez, who absorbed the damage across a pivotal stretch of the fifth and sixth innings. In the fifth, Nathan Church drew a walk that shifted win probability by 7.8 percent in St. Louis's favor, Iván Herrera followed with a single adding another 8.2 percent, and Jeremy Rivas delivered the inning's most impactful blow, a single that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 12.1 percent. Nelson Velázquez then deepened the wound in the sixth, connecting for a home run off Suárez that moved the needle an additional 10.3 percent. Baltimore's lone bright moment by win-probability impact came in the fourth, when Ryan Mountcastle singled off Michael McGreevy for a 6.6 percent swing, though it produced only one run and proved insufficient to alter the game's trajectory.
Church finished as the top offensive performer by WPA at plus-16.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.5, while Velázquez ended at plus-14.1 percent and plus-1.2 RE24. Mountcastle led Baltimore's contributors at plus-12.9 percent and plus-1.2 RE24 despite his team's loss. On the pitching side, Matt Pushard led Cardinals relievers with a plus-6.6 percent WPA, followed closely by George Soriano at plus-6.0 percent, as St. Louis's staff held Baltimore in check after McGreevy's plus-5.8 percent contribution in his portion of the outing.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.