The Atlanta Braves defeated the Minnesota Twins 4-1 at Lee Health Sports Complex on March 6, 2026, with all four of Atlanta's runs arriving in a decisive fourth inning that effectively settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54 percent home win probability for Minnesota, but that estimate collapsed to zero percent by the final out, reflecting just how thoroughly the Braves seized control in that single frame.
The fourth inning was the game's turning point in full. José Azócar delivered a double off Eston Stull that added 10.3 percent to Atlanta's win probability, and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. followed with a single off Kendry Rojas worth 14.6 percent, the single largest win-probability swing of the afternoon. Aaron Schunk added another single off Rojas for an additional 9.8 percent swing, compounding the damage. By the time the inning ended, the Braves had built the lead they would never relinquish. The Twins mounted the most significant threat of their own in the seventh, but a forceout by Kyler Fedko off Martín Pérez cost Minnesota 11.5 percent in win probability, and a Kala'i Rosario strikeout against the same pitcher shed another 10.8 percent, extinguishing any realistic path to a comeback.
On the individual ledger, Azócar finished as Atlanta's most impactful offensive contributor at plus 11.8 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, with Keirsey Jr. close behind at plus 10.2 percent and plus 1.0 RE24, and Aaron Sabato contributing plus 8.6 percent WPA. Martín Pérez was the clear standout on the mound, posting plus 17.9 percent WPA to pace all pitchers, with Reynaldo López adding plus 8.5 percent and Bailey Ober contributing plus 5.4 percent. Atlanta finished with eight hits and no errors against Minnesota's seven hits and an equally clean defensive performance.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.