The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Boston Red Sox 6-2 on March 5, 2026, at BayCare Ballpark, a result that aligned with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving Philadelphia a 54 percent home win probability, which ultimately climbed to 100 percent by the game's end. The Phillies built their advantage methodically, scoring three runs in the second inning and adding single runs in each of the fourth and fifth frames to construct a 5-0 lead before Boston made any meaningful noise. The Red Sox managed just five hits on the evening and committed no errors, while Philadelphia collected ten hits but was responsible for two errors of its own.
The decisive swings in win probability came in the game's early and middle innings. Dylan Moore's single off T.J. Sikkema in the bottom of the second was the single biggest positive play of the night, shifting Philadelphia's win probability by plus 7.1 percent, and Otto Kemp compounded that damage in the same inning with a double off Sikkema worth plus 5.2 percent. Kemp struck again in the fourth with another double, this time off Ryan Watson, adding plus 6.6 percent. On the Boston side, the most consequential play in their direction was a Connor Wong ground-into-double-play in the top of the fourth against José Alvarado, which cost the Red Sox 7.6 percent in win probability and effectively extinguished a potential rally. Boston's best offensive sequence came in the seventh, when a fielding error off Trevor Richards, credited to Yoeilin Cespedes on the batting side, added 5.8 percent for the Red Sox, accounting for much of their two-run output in that frame.
Otto Kemp led all position players by a significant margin, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 11.7 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.8, driven by his two doubles. Bryson Stott contributed plus 6.6 percent WPA and 0.8 RE24, while Dylan Moore added plus 6.1 percent WPA and 1.1 RE24. On the mound, Jesús Luzardo was the most impactful arm, posting plus 7.3 percent WPA, with José Alvarado adding plus 4.6 percent out of the bullpen, highlighted by his inducing the costly Wong double play. Chase Shugart also contributed plus 2.8 percent WPA as Philadelphia's pitching staff collectively suppressed Boston's lineup to five hits across nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.