The San Diego Padres dismantled the Seattle Mariners 27-6 at Peoria Stadium on March 5, 2026, in a game that was effectively decided in the second inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Seattle holding a 54% win probability, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the time the final out was recorded, reflecting just how thoroughly the Padres seized control.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the second, when San Diego erupted for 12 runs against the Mariners' pitching staff. Gavin Sheets was the central figure in that inning, contributing the single highest win-probability swing of the game with a flyout that added 13.5% to the Padres' win probability off Stefan Raeth, followed later by a single off Tyler Cleveland that added another 3.7%. Sung-Mun Song delivered a home run off Luis Castillo that shifted the model's estimate by 5.0%, and Ramón Laureano added a 3.7% swing with a single, also off Castillo. Seattle's best counter-moment came at the bottom of the second, when Colt Emerson grounded out against Walker Buehler in a spot that cost the Mariners 13.2% in win probability, underscoring how quickly Buehler neutralized any chance of a comeback.
Among the individual performers, Sheets finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 17.2%, while Song added 4.2% and Ty France contributed 4.1% alongside the game's best RE24 mark among hitters at plus 1.7. On the mound, Walker Buehler led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 15.1%, anchoring a San Diego staff that held Seattle to six runs on nine hits while committing zero errors against a Mariners defense that made two.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.