The Washington Nationals defeated the New York Mets 7-4 on March 5, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 54% before first pitch to 100% by game's end. Washington built its advantage methodically, scoring three runs in the bottom of the second, adding one in the fourth, and then breaking the game open with four runs in the sixth, while the Mets managed just four runs on five hits without an error.
The decisive moments were concentrated in the middle innings. José Tena's home run off Justin Hagenman in the bottom of the second was the game's third-largest win-probability swing, shifting the outlook by plus-11.3 percentage points in Washington's favor. Christian Franklin's single off Austin Warren in the fourth added another plus-11.8 percentage points. The sixth inning proved most damaging for New York, as Trey Lipscomb delivered a double off Anderson Severino that represented the game's single biggest swing at plus-24.7 percentage points, followed by Matt Mervis adding a single off Severino for an additional plus-9.6 percentage points. On the other side, Jose Rojas's pop out off Andre Granillo in the top of the fifth was the Mets' most costly offensive failure, costing New York 9.5 percentage points of win probability.
Tena led all position players with a plus-18.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.1, while Lipscomb finished at plus-14.6 percent WPA and Franklin contributed plus-9.2 percent WPA. On the mound, Hagenman, Orlando Ribalta, and Granillo were Washington's most impactful arms, posting WPA figures of plus-7.7, plus-7.1, and plus-6.3 percent respectively, keeping the Mets' lineup quiet enough to preserve a comfortable final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.