The Cincinnati Reds walked off the Los Angeles Dodgers 14-13 on March 5, 2026, at Goodyear Ballpark in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Reds victory climb from a 54 percent pre-game probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Dodgers had battled back through the middle innings, carrying momentum built on a four-run third and a three-run fourth and fifth, but Cincinnati answered at nearly every turn and ultimately needed just one swing to settle matters.
That swing came from Rece Hinds in the bottom of the ninth inning off Jordan Weems, a home run that shifted win probability by 77.8 percentage points and was the single most consequential play of the game. It was the defining moment in a chaotic scoring line that featured Cincinnati scoring four runs apiece in the first, fifth, and ninth innings. Hinds finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 71.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.8. Santiago Espinal had been the leading force for Los Angeles before that, driving the Dodgers' biggest swing with a fourth-inning home run off Tony Santillan that added 26.1 percentage points of win probability. Espinal posted a plus 34.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 3.5. Nathaniel Lowe contributed a home run in the bottom of the fifth off Paul Gervase, adding 20.3 percentage points and finishing with a plus 23.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.6. On the mound, Carson Hobbs led Cincinnati's pitching staff with a WPA of plus 13.3 percent, followed by Kyle Hurt at plus 8.8 and Nate Peterson at plus 8.4.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.