The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Colorado Rockies 10-8 on March 5, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, handing the home side a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening the game with a 54 percent win probability in Colorado's favor. The two teams traded runs early, splitting the first inning at two apiece and continuing to exchange tallies through the fourth, but it was Milwaukee's explosive fifth inning that effectively decided the contest. The Brewers poured six runs across in that frame, doing their most decisive damage against Davison Palermo. Garrett Mitchell's double in the fifth was the single largest win-probability swing of the game, adding 28.8 percent in Milwaukee's favor, and the inning also featured a Jake Bauers home run off Palermo worth 12.4 percent and a Sal Frelick single that added another 11.0 percent. Cooper Pratt drew a walk against Ryan Feltner for an additional 10.7 percent, capping a rally that turned a close game into a commanding lead.
Mitchell finished as the game's most impactful batter by WPA, finishing at plus-29.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.8, reflecting both his direct run contribution and the leverage of his spots in the lineup. Brock Wilken contributed plus-15.8 percent WPA, while TJ Rumfield added plus-16.1 percent, though his highest-leverage moment came via a ninth-inning flyout off Coleman Crow that, in context, helped preserve the lead rather than extend it, yielding a RE24 of 0.0. On the pitching side, Robert Gasser led Milwaukee's staff with plus-5.3 percent WPA, followed closely by Jaden Hill at plus-5.1 percent and Jacob Waguespack at plus-4.1 percent. Colorado trimmed the deficit with single runs in the seventh and eighth innings but never threatened to fully close the gap Milwaukee had carved out in the fifth, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate settled at zero percent for the Rockies by game's end.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.