The Detroit Tigers and Dominican Republic played to a 4-4 tie on March 4, 2026, at Estadio Quisqueya Juan Marichal, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's final win probability at 0% for either side after entering the day with Dominican Republic holding a 54% pre-game home win probability. The game was largely quiet through eight innings before an extraordinary ninth inning defined the contest, with both teams trading high-leverage blows that swung the outcome back and forth in dramatic fashion.
The decisive sequence began in the top of the ninth when Seth Stephenson delivered a single off Jimmy Cordero that represented the largest single win-probability shift of the game, adding 69.0% in WPA and pushing Detroit from a precarious position to a sudden lead. That rally gave the Tigers a 4-1 edge heading into the bottom half. Dominican Republic responded immediately, as Carlos Santana singled off Tanner Kohlhepp to drive a 46.8% WPA swing that brought the home side roaring back into contention. Pedro Severino added a single off Carlos Pena for another 12.3% WPA boost, helping fuel the three-run Dominican ninth, though Amed Rosario's fielder's choice out cost the home team 18.7% in win probability and ultimately stalled the rally at the tying run. Earlier in the game, Juan Soto's third-inning triple off Tyler Mattison had been the key blow for Dominican Republic, generating a 19.9% WPA swing that briefly gave the home side momentum.
Among the standout performers, Stephenson led all batters with a combined 69.0% WPA and 1.9 RE24, while Soto posted the highest RE24 of any batter at 2.7 to go with 30.4% WPA. On the pitching side, Albert Abreu was the most effective arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing 12.9% WPA, followed by Scott Effross at 8.4% and Enny Romero at 8.1%. Detroit finished with five hits and no errors against Dominican Republic's thirteen hits and one error, a disparity that made the Tigers' late surge all the more notable in producing the deadlock.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.