Nicaragua defeated St. Louis 2-1 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 4, 2026, handing the Cardinals a loss in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability opened at 54 percent and collapsed to zero by the final out. The game was largely a pitchers' duel through the first three innings before Emanuel Trujillo broke the deadlock with a home run off Matthew Liberatore in the top of the fourth, a swing that shifted win probability 17.5 percent in Nicaragua's favor and proved to be the decisive blow in terms of early-game leverage. St. Louis answered with its lone run on an Andy Yerzy home run off Leonel Sequera in the bottom of the eighth, a +18.8 percent win-probability swing that briefly made the Cardinals' deficit manageable, though Bligh Madris's groundout against Sequera in the same inning erased 18.7 percent of that momentum and left St. Louis still trailing by one.
Nicaragua's bullpen closed the door with authority, and the defining moment of the game came in the bottom of the ninth when Jon Jon Gazdar struck out off Christian Worley, a strikeout that carried the single largest win-probability swing of the contest at 31.6 percent. Ian Petrutz had extended the at-bat sequence with a flyout that cost St. Louis 8.5 percent win probability, underscoring how little room the Cardinals had to work with against Worley in the final frame. Gazdar led all position players by WPA at plus 31.6 percent despite a RE24 of minus 0.1, while Yerzy finished at plus 16.8 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus 0.8. On the mound, Richard Fitts led Nicaragua's pitching staff with plus 11.3 percent WPA, followed by Kenword Burton at plus 8.8 percent and Osman Gutierrez at plus 7.5 percent. Nicaragua out-hit St. Louis nine to six and committed one error to the Cardinals' none, finishing with a thoroughly dominant result despite the tight final score.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.