The Kingdom of the Netherlands handed the Tampa Bay Rays an 11-8 defeat on March 4, 2026, at Charlotte Sports Park, jumping out to a 4-2 lead in the first inning and never relinquishing control. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 54 percent in favor of Tampa Bay before the game but closed at zero percent as the Dutch pulled away for good. Netherlands finished with 14 hits and committed no errors, while the Rays were held to 7 hits and hurt themselves with 2 errors across the nine innings.
The game's pivotal sequences were clustered early and late. A Didi Gregorius double off Jake Woodford in the top of the third added 9.4 percent to the Netherlands win probability, part of a three-run frame that pushed the Dutch lead to 7-2. Earlier, a Dayson Croes groundout in the top of the first had already contributed a notable 8.5 percent swing, underscoring how efficiently Netherlands converted pressure into runs in the opening inning. Tampa Bay mounted its most credible threat in the bottom of the seventh, where Xavier Isaac singled off Shairon Martis for an 11.0 percent win-probability gain and Narciso Polanco followed with a single worth 9.9 percent, trimming the deficit to 8-7. However, Netherlands answered with two runs of their own in the seventh to restore separation, and a Connor Hujsak strikeout to end the ninth, costing Tampa Bay 8.5 percent, confirmed the final margin.
Among individual performers, Dayson Croes led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus-18.0 and a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Xavier Isaac contributed plus-15.8 WPA and a team-best plus-1.5 RE24. Narciso Polanco added plus-16.1 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 to round out the Netherlands offensive core. On the mound, Juan Carlos Sulbaran was the most impactful arm by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting plus-13.3 WPA, with Derek West adding plus-9.8 WPA in relief.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.