The San Francisco Giants defeated the Seattle Mariners 9-4 on March 4, 2026, at Scottsdale Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of the Giants winning probability climbing from 54% before first pitch to a certainty of 100% by game's end. The outcome was largely settled across two mid-game innings, as San Francisco scored five runs in the fourth and three more in the fifth to pull decisively away after Seattle had briefly grabbed a lead.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the fourth, where the Giants inflicted the bulk of their damage against Carlos Vargas. Jake Holton's home run was the single biggest swing of the game, adding 18.6% to San Francisco's win probability, and the inning continued to compound from there: a Grant McCray walk added another 12.0%, and a Luis Matos single contributed 9.2%, reflecting how thoroughly the Giants controlled the frame. Seattle had generated some early hope in the top of the third, when Jonny Farmelo laced a triple off Robbie Ray that shifted win probability by 9.1% in the Mariners' favor, but Seattle could not sustain that threat. In the fifth, Bryce Eldridge's double off José A. Ferrer added 8.8% for San Francisco, extending the cushion further.
Among individual performers, Holton led all batters with a WPA of plus 16.4% and an RE24 of plus 1.9, while Farmelo's triple gave him a nearly equivalent plus 16.0% WPA and plus 1.7 RE24 despite being on the losing side. Matos finished third among position players at plus 11.9% WPA. On the mound, Cooper Criswell was the most impactful arm of the afternoon, posting a WPA of plus 12.3% for San Francisco, with Keaton Winn adding plus 4.8% and Michael Fulmer contributing plus 1.9%.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.