The Los Angeles Angels defeated Italy 4-3 at Tempe Diablo Stadium on March 4, 2026, rallying from a deficit to claim the win. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 54 percent pre-game home win probability before closing at 100 percent as the Angels secured the final out. Italy grabbed the early advantage with Jon Berti's home run in the third inning off Mitch Farris, a swing that shifted win probability by 16.4 points in Italy's favor, and the visitors carried a 3-1 edge into the late innings. Los Angeles began clawing back in the sixth before Jeimer Candelario delivered the most consequential blow of the night, a home run in the bottom of the eighth off Matteo Bocchi that swung win probability 21.9 points toward the Angels and pulled the club within one run heading into the final frame.
The ninth inning proved decisive in both directions. Sam Antonacci opened the top half with a double off Sam Bachman that added 17.5 points of win probability to Italy's ledger, briefly restoring genuine tension, but Dante Nori's bases-loaded ground into a double play one at-bat later erased that threat and swung the needle 32.4 points back toward Los Angeles, the single largest win-probability shift of the game. Candelario then capped the evening with a walk-off sacrifice fly in the bottom of the ninth off Camden Minacci, a 15.9-point swing that closed the scoring at 4-3.
Candelario was the clear offensive catalyst, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-37.8 and an RE24 of plus-0.9 across his two decisive plate appearances. Jorge Soler contributed the second-highest offensive WPA at plus-19.3 with a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Antonacci's double gave him a plus-17.5 mark despite the inning ultimately turning against Italy. On the mound, Sam Bachman led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-13.5 despite allowing the Antonacci double, aided by the double-play groundout that neutralized the threat. Gabriele Quattrini added plus-12.2 and Kyle Nicolas plus-9.7 as the Angels bullpen collectively preserved the come-from-behind result.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.