The New York Mets defeated Israel 5-2 at Clover Park on March 4, 2026, in a game that remained tightly contested through seven innings before New York pulled away with a four-run eighth. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 54% home win probability and closed at 100% following the Mets' decisive late rally.
The most consequential sequence of the night unfolded in the bottom of the eighth, where a pair of Mets hits off Jordan Geber swung momentum decisively. Jose Rojas delivered a double that added 18.8% to New York's win probability, and Ji Hwan Bae followed with a single worth another 15.7%, together forming the backbone of a four-run frame that put the game out of reach. Before that Mets surge, Israel had briefly seized the upper hand in the top of the seventh when Zach Levenson launched a home run off Adbert Alzolay, a swing worth 15.6% win probability that gave Israel its first lead. Israel added further pressure in the eighth on a Cole Carrigg triple off Nick Burdi, worth 13.9%, and an RJ Schreck double that added 12.4%, though the team ultimately could not convert those chances into enough runs to stay competitive.
Among individual performers, Levenson led all batters with a WPA of plus-19.8% and an RE24 of plus-1.3, reflecting his home run's outsized situational impact despite ending on the losing side. Rojas finished at plus-16.5% WPA and Bae at plus-15.7%, each contributing an RE24 of plus-0.9 on the winning side. On the mound, Christian Scott was the model's top-graded arm at plus-18.0% WPA, with David Peterson adding plus-8.2% and Harrison Cohen contributing plus-5.3% in support of New York's pitching effort.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.