Great Britain and the San Diego Padres played to a 2-2 tie on March 4, 2026 at Peoria Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving San Diego a 54 percent chance of winning before the final settled at zero percent for either side. Great Britain scored first in the opening inning, San Diego answered with a run in the sixth, and the two teams traded runs in the eighth before neither could break through in the ninth. Each club finished with seven hits, while San Diego committed one error against Great Britain's clean fielding.
The eighth inning produced the two most pivotal swings of the afternoon. Jazz Chisholm Jr. led off the top half by taking Eli Villalobos deep for a home run, a play the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 18.7 percent in win probability for Great Britain. San Diego responded immediately in the bottom half when Ryan Jackson ripped a triple off Dylan Covey, a hit that added 18.9 percent in win probability for the Padres and knotted the game at two. The tension carried into the ninth, where Ryan Wideman struck out off Graham Spraker, a pivotal out worth plus 14.0 percent for Great Britain that helped preserve the deadlock. On the negative side, Braedon Karpathios grounded out in the seventh at minus 10.9 percent and Clay Dungan grounded into a double play in the fourth at minus 9.4 percent, both costly outs that stalled San Diego's chances of pulling ahead.
Among the standout individual performers, Jackson led all batters with a plus 18.9 percent WPA and a 0.9 RE24, while Chisholm posted plus 18.2 percent WPA and a 0.4 RE24, and Wideman contributed plus 16.8 percent WPA. On the mound, Randy Vásquez was the most valuable arm of the day at plus 25.0 percent WPA, followed by Sean Boyle at plus 17.6 percent and Garrett Hawkins at plus 13.5 percent, a trio whose collective performance kept San Diego from completing its first-inning deficit into a full defeat.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.