The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Athletics 3-1 at Hohokam Stadium on March 4, 2026, holding on for the road win behind a combination of timely hitting and sharp relief work. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the home Athletics a 54% win probability, but that edge evaporated quickly and never returned, finishing at 0% by the final out.
The decisive blow came in the fourth inning when Jacob Amaya connected on a home run off Tyler Ferguson, a swing that shifted win probability by 20.4 percentage points and stood as the single most impactful play of the game. Amaya finished as the top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting a combined 24.0% win probability added and a 2.1 RE24 on the day. The Diamondbacks added an insurance run in the sixth, and while the Athletics showed flickers of life, they could not capitalize when it mattered most. Nick Kurtz grounded into a double play in the third, a sequence that swung win probability 9.4 points against Oakland and erased what had been a promising situation, and though Kurtz doubled in the sixth for an 8.8-point swing in the Athletics' favor, the damage from the earlier inning proved difficult to overcome.
Arizona's bullpen locked things down in the late innings, with Jonathan Loaisiga leading all pitchers at plus-13.3% WPA. His work in the eighth, which included inducing a Colby Thomas forceout worth 12.3 percentage points against Oakland's chances, was central to preserving the lead. Gerardo Carrillo and Kade Strowd also contributed positively on the mound, finishing at plus-9.4% and plus-8.8% WPA respectively. On the offensive side, Luken Baker added 11.3% WPA to support Amaya's effort, and Michael Stefanic's flyout to end the ninth, while recorded as a positive 14.4-point swing for Arizona given the game state, underscored just how completely the Diamondbacks had neutralized any late Athletics threat. Arizona finished with 10 hits and no errors against the Athletics' six hits and one error.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.