The Chicago Cubs handed the Milwaukee Brewers a 4-1 defeat on March 4, 2026, at American Family Fields of Phoenix, holding Milwaukee to a single run despite the Brewers generating seven hits across the afternoon. The DiamondIQ model opened with Milwaukee holding a 54% pre-game win probability, but that edge evaporated steadily as Chicago's pitching staff and timely hitting took control.
The game's most consequential sequences came in the middle innings. Jefferson Rojas delivered the decisive blow in the top of the sixth, connecting on a home run off Logan Henderson that swung win probability 10.9 percentage points in Chicago's favor. The Brewers had briefly drawn level in the bottom of the third when Christian Yelich went deep off Jackson Kirkpatrick for a 10.5% swing — the single largest positive play for Milwaukee and the one that temporarily kept the contest competitive. Chicago had already built a lead with Dylan Carlson's single off Brandon Sproat in the third (+8.0%) and James Triantos added to the cushion with a double off Henderson in the fourth (+7.5%), leaving Milwaukee's bullpen unable to stem the damage.
On the individual ledger, Yelich finished as the top batter by WPA at +16.0% with a +1.5 RE24, his home run accounting for nearly all of Milwaukee's offensive contribution. Triantos posted +9.5% WPA and +1.2 RE24 for the Cubs, while Greg Jones added +9.6% WPA despite a negative RE24 figure, his eighth-inning walk off Connor Noland extending a Chicago threat. On the mound, Edward Cabrera led all pitchers with a +13.9% WPA, followed closely by Jaxon Wiggins at +12.5% and Vince Velasquez at +12.3%, a collective effort that kept Milwaukee's seven hits from translating into any sustained run support.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.