The San Diego Padres defeated the Chicago White Sox 4-3 at Camelback Ranch on March 3, 2026, handing the home side a loss after the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 54 percent pre-game win probability favoring Chicago and closed at zero. San Diego scored in four different innings, getting on the board with a run in the first, adding two in the third, one in the sixth, and one more in the eighth, while Chicago's three runs came in scattered fashion across the third, sixth, and eighth frames but were never enough to overtake the visitors.
The decisive swing of the game came in the bottom of the ninth, when William Bergolla Jr. lined out against Francis Peña in a sequence that, despite the out, produced a plus-31.6 percent win-probability shift in context, reflecting how thoroughly the Padres had locked down the lead at that stage. The eighth inning proved equally pivotal in both directions: Francisco Acuna's double off Alexander Alberto in the top half added plus-21.0 percent to San Diego's win probability, extending the cushion, while Derek Hill's groundout into a double play in the bottom half off Bradgley Rodriguez swung minus-24.2 percent against the White Sox, effectively closing the door on Chicago's final credible threat. Earlier, Nick Castellanos had delivered a home run off Sean Newcomb in the top of the third worth plus-18.4 percent, and Pablo Reyes drew a pivotal walk off Jared Kelley in the seventh for an additional plus-13.6 percent.
Among individual performers, Acuna led all batters with a plus-21.0 percent WPA and a 1.1 RE24, while Castellanos contributed plus-11.7 percent WPA and a 1.6 RE24. On the mound, Bradgley Rodriguez led all pitchers with a plus-23.3 percent WPA, with Chris Murphy adding plus-19.1 percent and Kyle Hart contributing plus-12.0 percent as San Diego's bullpen collectively neutralized Chicago's late-game opportunities.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.