The New York Mets defeated Nicaragua 6-3 at Clover Park on March 3, 2026, building a lead that the DiamondIQ model's estimate pushed from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Mets scored in five of nine innings, generating most of their damage in clusters that ultimately proved insurmountable for the Nicaraguan side, which finished with 11 hits but could not translate that output into enough runs against a Mets pitching staff that kept the margin intact.
The game's most impactful sequence began in the third inning, when Freddy Zamora connected on a home run off Jonah Tong that shifted win probability by plus 10.5 percent in Nicaragua's favor, giving the visitors a brief foothold. The Mets answered almost immediately, as Francisco Alvarez laced a single off Danilo Bermudez in the bottom half, swinging win probability back toward New York by plus 10.2 percent. That exchange set the tone for a game decided by momentum-reversing moments rather than sustained offensive bursts. Nicaragua's best late threat came in the top of the eighth, when Brandon Leyton homered off Brooks Raley for a plus 9.2 percent swing, but JT Schwartz's strikeout against the same pitcher wiped out much of that potential, costing Nicaragua minus 8.9 percent. Vidal Bruján's sixth-inning single off Oscar Rayo, worth plus 8.4 percent, had earlier helped the Mets extend their advantage to a commanding position.
Francisco Alvarez led all position players with a plus 17.7 percent WPA and a plus 1.3 RE24, making him the clear offensive catalyst for New York. Chris Suero contributed plus 11.1 percent WPA alongside a team-best plus 1.8 RE24, while Leyton's home run accounted for his plus 9.2 percent WPA despite coming in a losing effort for Nicaragua. On the mound, Luke Weaver paced the Mets staff with a plus 7.3 percent WPA, followed by Luis García at plus 6.3 percent and Brett Banks at plus 6.2 percent, a collective effort that ensured Nicaragua's 11-hit performance never seriously threatened the final outcome.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.