Mexico defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-3 on March 3, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, turning what had been a competitive spring contest into a decisive victory on the strength of a pivotal fourth inning and late-game insurance runs. The DiamondIQ model opened with Arizona holding a 54 percent home win probability, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out. The scoring was concentrated in the fourth inning, when Mexico plated four runs and Arizona answered with two, with Nick Gonzales delivering the biggest blow of that sequence — a double off Juan Morillo that carried a win-probability swing of plus 13.1 percent in Mexico's favor. Each club finished with 11 hits, though Mexico converted its opportunities more efficiently across the box score.
The eighth inning sealed the outcome. Rowdy Tellez connected on a home run off Dylan Ray that swung win probability by plus 18.0 percent, the single largest play of the game, and he finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 23.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.3. Arizona had chances to respond but could not convert, with Cristofer Torin's lineout in the bottom of the eighth representing a minus 16.4 percent swing against the Diamondbacks, followed immediately by Tommy Troy's strikeout at minus 15.1 percent. Earlier, in the bottom of the seventh, Torin was also at the center of a strikeout double play off Alex Carrillo that cost Arizona minus 14.3 percent in win probability.
On the pitching side, Mexico's bullpen was the story. Roel Ramírez led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 10.2 percent, benefiting directly from those critical eighth-inning outs, while Alex Carrillo contributed plus 9.7 percent and Robert Garcia added plus 7.9 percent. Among position players, Jordan Lawlar posted plus 14.3 percent WPA and Jakey Josepha added plus 14.2 percent to round out Mexico's most impactful contributors. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Mexico having controlled the game's key leverage moments decisively despite the relatively even hit totals.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.