Israel defeated the Miami Marlins 1-0 on March 3, 2026, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, handing Miami a shutout loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the Marlins a 54% chance to win at home. Israel plated its lone run in the fourth inning and then surrendered the lead to its pitching staff, which held Miami scoreless across all nine frames. The Marlins finished with four hits and two errors while Israel managed just three hits and one error, leaving the margin razor-thin throughout. The DiamondIQ model's final win probability for Miami settled at 0%, reflecting how completely Israel's pitchers closed the door.
The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the bottom eighth and ninth innings, where Israel's relievers repeatedly extinguished Miami threats. In the eighth, Charlie Beilenson induced a lineout from Dylan Jasso that swung win probability 16.5 percentage points in Israel's favor, then coaxed an Esmil Valencia groundout into a double play worth a further 19.0-point swing against Miami. Beilenson finished the night as the top pitcher by WPA at plus-23.3%. Justin Alintoff contributed plus-17.1% WPA and Dax Fulton added plus-11.5%, underscoring how the Israel bullpen collectively dismantled any Marlins momentum. In the ninth, closer Daniel Federman navigated a Chase Jaworsky single that briefly shifted win probability 12.3 points toward Miami before striking out Jay Beshears and then Andrew Pintar to end it, with that final strikeout alone generating a 21.4-point swing in Israel's favor.
Among position players, Andrew Pintar led all batters with a plus-24.0% WPA figure, largely credited to his run-scoring contributions and his final at-bat strikeout that sealed the game. Chase Jaworsky posted plus-12.3% WPA on his ninth-inning single, and Nathan Martorella added plus-8.6% WPA with plus-0.4 RE24 to round out Israel's most impactful offensive contributors. Miami's inability to convert its four hits into any runs, compounded by two errors in the field, proved fatal against an Israel squad that needed only one run to walk away with the victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.