The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Cleveland Guardians 5-4 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 3, 2026, in a game that was largely decided by early offensive eruptions before Dodgers relievers locked down a tense finish. Cleveland struck first and hardest in the opening inning, scoring four runs to seize early control, but Los Angeles answered with two runs in the third and three more in the fourth to take a lead they would not relinquish. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 54 percent home win probability for Cleveland, a figure that ultimately collapsed to zero as the Dodgers' bullpen held firm over the final five innings.
The pivotal swing in the fourth inning came on Zach Ehrhard's triple off Tanner Burns, a hit that added 20.7 percent in win probability and was central to the three-run frame that flipped the game's complexion entirely. Cleveland mounted pressure late, and the ninth inning carried genuine tension. Nick Mitchell's double off Ronan Kopp moved the needle 17.0 percent in Cleveland's favor, but Kopp responded by striking out Angel Genao in what registered as the single highest-leverage play of the game at plus-21.4 percent win probability for Los Angeles, extinguishing the Guardians' final threat. Wuilfredo Antunez's lineout earlier in the inning had cost Cleveland 13.1 percent in win probability, compounding the difficulty of the rally.
Among position players, Miguel Rojas led by combined impact with plus-16.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.9, reflecting his run-environment contributions throughout the game. On the mound, Antoine Kelly was the Dodgers' most valuable reliever, posting plus-23.3 percent WPA, with River Ryan and Will Klein also contributing positively at plus-13.0 and plus-9.7 percent respectively. The final line showed Los Angeles with seven hits and no errors against Cleveland's four hits and one error, a disparity that underscored the Dodgers' cleaner execution in a game the DiamondIQ model now confirms belonged to them by the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.