The Pittsburgh Pirates rolled past Colombia 7-1 at LECOM Park on March 3, 2026, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win from 54% before first pitch to 100% by the final out. Pittsburgh did its damage in concentrated bursts, plating two runs in the third inning and three more in the fourth before adding two additional runs in the sixth, while Colombia managed its lone run in the top of the ninth against an already-decided game. Colombia's pitching staff allowed 11 hits and committed one error, while Pittsburgh's defense was equally imperfect with one error of its own, though the Pirates' offense proved far more consequential.
The third inning served as the turning point, with Konnor Griffin's double off Danis Correa generating the single largest win-probability swing of the contest at plus 13.0 percentage points. Jake Mangum followed with a double of his own against Correa, adding another plus 8.2 points to Pittsburgh's probability. Colombia's Guillo Zuñiga then absorbed further damage in the fourth, when Jhostynxon Garcia's double produced a plus 8.6-point swing and Billy Cook's single contributed an additional plus 5.0 points. Harold Ramírez's grounded double play in the top of the sixth off Isaac Mattson, costing Colombia 3.7 percentage points, briefly stalled a potential rally before Pittsburgh put the game further out of reach.
Among position players, Griffin finished as the top performer by WPA at plus 12.0, with a RE24 of plus 1.2, while Mangum posted plus 9.7 WPA and plus 1.0 RE24 and Cook added plus 7.8 WPA alongside a team-best plus 1.4 RE24. On the mound, José Urquidy led Pittsburgh's pitchers with plus 8.2 WPA, followed by Justin Lawrence at plus 5.4 and Adrian Almeida at plus 4.6, as the Pirates' collective staff limited Colombia to six hits across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model favored Pittsburgh only modestly entering the afternoon, but the Pirates quickly and decisively justified that lean.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.