The Toronto Blue Jays defeated Canada 10-7 at TD Ballpark on March 3, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Toronto win climbing from a pre-game 54% to 100% by game's end. The Blue Jays built their foundation early, plating two runs in the bottom of the first and five more in the bottom of the second, giving them a commanding cushion that Canada spent the rest of the game attempting to overcome. Canada did show life in the sixth and seventh innings, adding two and one runs respectively, before a four-run top eighth briefly complicated matters, but Toronto answered with three of its own in that same frame to maintain control.
The pivotal moment of the game came in the bottom of the eighth, when Riley Tirotta launched a home run off Brock Dykxhoorn that shifted win probability by plus 37.8 percentage points, the single largest swing of the night and the blow that effectively closed the door on any Canada comeback. Just prior to that, in the top of the eighth, Denzel Clarke had given Canada a pulse with a double off Gage Stanifer worth plus 20.9 percentage points, and a Matt Davidson hit by pitch from Stanifer added another plus 8.2 percentage points to Canada's ledger. On the pitching side, Jack Cushing led all arms with plus 10.5 percentage points of win probability added, while Kevin Gausman contributed plus 7.6.
Tirotta finished as the game's most impactful performer with a plus 37.8 WPA and plus 2.7 RE24, while Clarke posted a plus 20.0 WPA and plus 1.0 RE24 for Canada. Brandon Valenzuela rounded out the top three batters by WPA at plus 15.9, though his minus 0.1 RE24 reflected a more modest run-environment contribution. Toronto's early offensive explosion in the first two innings proved too large a deficit for Canada to surmount, and the Tirotta home run in the eighth was the exclamation point on a Blue Jays victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.