The Los Angeles Angels outlasted the Seattle Mariners 7-6 at Peoria Stadium on March 3, 2026, completing a comeback against a team the DiamondIQ model had installed as a 54 percent favorite before first pitch. The Angels trailed through much of the contest but seized control in the top of the ninth inning, which proved to be the decisive frame. Yolmer Sánchez delivered the biggest single swing of the game, a double off Reid Easterly that shifted win probability 26.7 points in Los Angeles's favor. Sebastián Rivero followed with a sacrifice bunt off Easterly that added another 18.1 points to the Angels' chances, a rare case of small ball carrying enormous leverage. The Angels plated three runs in the ninth to turn a narrow deficit into a one-run lead they would not relinquish.
Seattle had its moments, most notably in the bottom of the fifth when Patrick Wisdom singled off Ryan Zeferjahn to swing win probability 20.4 points toward the Mariners, and the Mariners pushed across a run in both the fourth and fifth innings to maintain pressure. But Brock Rodden's pop out to end the bottom of the ninth, against Shaun Anderson, closed the door with an 18.8-point probability shift completing the Angels' escape.
Among individual performers, Jeimer Candelario led all batters with a combined WPA of plus-26.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.3, anchored by a fourth-inning home run off Casey Legumina that swung win probability 19.5 points. Sánchez finished at plus-24.5 percent WPA and Wisdom at plus-23.6 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-2.2 for Seattle. On the mound, Robinson Ortiz contributed plus-7.3 percent WPA to lead Angels pitchers, with Domingo Gonzalez adding plus-7.2 and Cole Wilcox plus-5.5 in support. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Seattle a 54 percent chance of winning before the game began; by the final out, that figure had reached zero.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.