The Boston Red Sox defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 7-6 at TD Ballpark on March 2, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically across its final five innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Toronto a 54% win probability as the home side, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out. The decisive turning point came in the bottom of the fifth, where Addison Barger connected on a home run off Patrick Halligan that shifted win probability by +40.7% in Toronto's favor, briefly making the Blue Jays heavy favorites after they scored five runs in the frame to take what appeared to be a commanding lead.
Boston answered methodically. Mickey Gasper had already put the Red Sox on the board with a home run off Jorge Alcala in the top of the fifth, a swing worth +17.0% in win probability. Then in the top of the eighth, Nathan Hickey delivered the critical blow against Devereaux Harrison, a home run that swung win probability +36.5% toward Boston and put the Red Sox back in front. Toronto's best chance to answer came when Eloy Jimenez came to the plate in the bottom of the eighth, but his flyout off Jeremy Wu-Yelland represented a -20.9% swing against the Blue Jays and effectively extinguished their momentum. Wu-Yelland was among the three pitchers Boston leaned on to close things out, finishing alongside Seth Martinez and Johan Oviedo as the top performers by WPA on the mound.
In the batter's box, Carlos Mendoza emerged as Boston's most impactful player by cumulative WPA at +40.5%, capping the win with a pivotal strikeout drawn from Michael Sansone in the bottom of the ninth that added +31.6% to Boston's win probability. Barger led all batters with a RE24 of +2.9 despite pitching for the other side of the ledger, while Hickey's +1.6 RE24 underscored how much his eighth-inning home run altered the run-expectancy landscape. The Red Sox finished with 12 hits and committed no errors, while Toronto's lone miscue contributed to the margin in what proved to be a one-run final.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.