The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 4-1 on March 2, 2026, at LECOM Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh win climbing from a 54 percent pre-game probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Pirates scattered their offense across a handful of decisive moments, holding Tampa Bay to just four hits and allowing only one error to complicate an otherwise controlled effort.
The game's single biggest swing came in the bottom of the seventh inning, when Yordany De Los Santos connected on a home run off Kodi Whitley, a play the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 18.4 percent win probability. That blow capped a three-run frame that effectively put the game away. Rafael Flores Jr. added a double in the same inning off Whitley, contributing another plus 9.2 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability and helping extend the cushion. Tampa Bay's most meaningful moment came in the top of the fourth, when Logan Davidson singled off Carmen Mlodzinski for a plus 10.2 percent swing, though the Rays were unable to convert that momentum into sustained offense. Dom Keegan's double off Chris Devenski in the seventh added another plus 9.4 percent for Tampa Bay, but arrived too late to alter the outcome.
Among individual performers, De Los Santos led all batters with a plus 18.4 percent WPA and a plus 1.4 RE24, while Logan Davidson finished at plus 7.9 percent WPA and plus 0.8 RE24. On the mound, Andrew Wantz led Pittsburgh's pitching staff with a plus 12.1 percent WPA contribution, followed closely by Ty Johnson at plus 12.0 percent and Chris Devenski at plus 8.3 percent, as the Pirates' bullpen collectively shut down Tampa Bay's limited threats.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.