The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Miami Marlins 3-2 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 2, 2026, in a game that remained tightly contested until a walk-off single in the bottom of the ninth sealed the outcome. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability for St. Louis, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent.
The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth when Colton Ledbetter delivered a walk-off single off Nigel Belgrave, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 37.9 percent and stood as the single most impactful play of the game. St. Louis had built its lead through a two-run seventh inning, anchored by a Ramon Mendoza double off Josh White that added 10.2 percent to the Cardinals' chances and a Yohel Pozo single in the same frame worth 12.3 percent. Miami's best offensive moment came in the fourth inning when Kemp Alderman connected on a home run off Matt Pushard, a swing worth plus 11.2 percent in win probability at that stage. The Marlins' final chance evaporated in the top of the ninth when Abrahan Ramirez grounded into a double play off Scott Blewett, erasing 13.7 percent of Miami's remaining hope.
Among individual performers, Ledbetter led all batters with a plus 37.9 percent WPA and plus 0.9 RE24, while Alderman finished at plus 10.7 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24 to pace Miami's short list of contributors. On the mound, Scott Blewett led Cardinals pitchers at plus 13.5 percent WPA, followed closely by Josh Ekness at plus 10.9 percent and George Soriano at plus 10.6 percent. Miami finished with six hits and one error against St. Louis's clean five-hit, zero-error performance.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.