The Athletics handed the San Diego Padres a 7-2 defeat at Peoria Stadium on March 2, 2026, building their lead early and never relinquishing it. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the home Padres a 54% win probability, but that edge evaporated quickly as Oakland scored two runs in each of the first two innings and added three more in the third, effectively ending any realistic path to a Padres comeback.
The decisive stretch came in the second inning, where the biggest win-probability swings of the game occurred in both halves. Tyler Soderstrom's groundout in the top of the second added 8.0% to Oakland's win probability, and Shea Langeliers followed with a single off Michael King that pushed it another 6.4%. San Diego had a chance to answer in the bottom half, but Sung-Mun Song's strikeout off Mason Barnett swung win probability 12.0% in Oakland's favor, and Nick Castellanos compounded the damage by grounding into a double play, costing the Padres another 7.2%. Jackson Merrill's flyout to end the first inning, also off Barnett, had already cost San Diego 6.0% earlier in the game.
Mason Barnett was the clear standout performer, finishing with a model-leading 20.5% win-probability added on the mound and consistently neutralizing the Padres' most dangerous moments. Among position players, Soderstrom led all batters at plus-8.6% WPA and plus-1.9 RE24, while Junior Perez contributed plus-5.3% WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. The Athletics finished with 12 hits and committed no errors, while San Diego managed just five hits and an error. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of a San Diego win probability reached 0% by the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.