The New York Yankees defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 5-3 at BayCare Ballpark on March 1, 2026, in a game that remained tightly contested through six innings before a four-run Yankees seventh inning effectively decided the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered with Philadelphia holding a 54% win probability, but that edge evaporated over the course of a decisive middle frame and never recovered, finishing at 0% as the final out was recorded.
The pivotal sequence came in the top of the seventh against Phillies reliever Zach Pop. Miguel Palma delivered a single that swung win probability 16.5 points in New York's favor, and Yanquiel Fernández followed with a double worth 15.9 percentage points, the two plays combining to form the backbone of the four-run inning that put the game out of reach. Earlier, Seth Brown had contributed a single off Jonathan Bowlan in the fifth inning that added 11.5 points of win probability, keeping the Yankees in position to capitalize later. Philadelphia's brightest moment came when Bryson Stott hit a home run off Cade Winquest in the bottom of the fifth, a swing worth 13.1 percentage points that briefly tightened things. A Phillies threat in the ninth, when Aroon Escobar lined out against Michael Arias in a play credited with 12.0 points of win-probability impact, represented the team's last meaningful chance.
Fernández finished as the game's top batter by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a combined WPA of plus-16.4% alongside a RE24 of plus-0.5, while Palma contributed plus-15.3% WPA. Stott was Philadelphia's standout, finishing with plus-11.9% WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.8 despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Will Warren led all pitchers at plus-16.4% WPA, with Ben Hess adding plus-10.7% and Kyle Backhus contributing plus-7.1% as the Yankees bullpen secured the final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.