The Athletics handled the Reds convincingly at Hohokam Stadium on March 1, 2026, winning 12-4 in a game that was effectively decided by the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability for Oakland, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Athletics outscored Cincinnati 12-4 while committing no errors against the Reds' two.
The decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the third inning, where Oakland did the bulk of its damage with a four-run frame that shifted the game's trajectory sharply. Austin Wynns delivered the most impactful blow of the afternoon, taking Hunter Parks deep for a home run that added 12.9 percent to the Athletics' win probability. Shea Langeliers followed with a double off Andrew Abbott that added another 9.1 percent, pushing Cincinnati into a deficit it would never recover from. The Reds had squandered their best early opportunity in the top of the second, when Dane Myers grounded into a double play off J.T. Ginn, a play that cost Cincinnati 7.5 percent in win probability. Will Benson's strikeout against Ginn in the third inning proved similarly damaging, removing another 6.5 percent from the Reds' chances. Oakland added five more runs in the eighth, with Rece Hinds contributing a double off Joel Kuhnel that accounted for a 6.6 percent win-probability swing.
Individually, Wynns led all batters with a combined WPA of plus-16.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.9, while Langeliers finished at plus-13.0 percent WPA and plus-3.0 RE24, making the two catchers the clear offensive engines of the victory. On the mound, J.T. Ginn was the standout, posting a WPA of plus-12.6 percent by neutralizing Cincinnati's lineup through his portion of the game, with Kuhnel and Gage Jump adding plus-4.5 and plus-2.4 percent respectively in support. The DiamondIQ model favors Oakland's performance here as the product of sustained execution on both sides of the ball.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.