Atlanta took the finale at CoolToday Park on March 1, 2026, defeating Tampa Bay 3-5 behind a decisive stretch in the middle innings that turned a scoreless game into a comfortable Braves victory. The DiamondIQ model opened the day with a 54 percent home win probability, but by the final out that figure had reached 100 percent, a reflection of how thoroughly Atlanta controlled the game's critical junctures after the Rays drew first blood with a run in the fourth.
The game's turning point arrived in the bottom of the fifth, when Michael Harris II singled off Trevor Martin in a swing that added 19.2 percent to Atlanta's win probability, the single largest WPA play of the afternoon. That hit was part of a three-run frame that broke the game open, aided further by a Ben Gamel-benefiting fielding error off Joe Boyle that contributed another 14.1 percent. Tampa Bay briefly responded in the top of the sixth when Jacob Melton drove a home run off Dylan Dodd, a swing worth plus-13.6 percent from the Rays' perspective that trimmed the deficit, but Atlanta answered immediately in the bottom half as Austin Riley launched a home run off Cole Sulser for plus-14.7 percent, effectively neutralizing the momentum. Gamel then added an insurance homer off Hunter Bigge in the seventh for another 13.1 percent swing.
Ben Gamel was the game's standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-25.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.9 across his two home runs and error involvement. Michael Harris II contributed plus-15.8 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24, while Melton's solo shot accounted for plus-12.5 percent WPA for Tampa Bay despite the loss. On the mound, Drew Rasmussen led Atlanta's staff with plus-12.0 percent WPA, followed closely by LJ McDonough at plus-11.6 percent and Reynaldo López at plus-8.2 percent, a collective pitching performance that held Tampa Bay to three runs on six hits with one error.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.