The Baltimore Orioles survived a back-and-forth spring training contest at JetBlue Park on March 1, 2026, holding off the Boston Red Sox 8-7 to complete a game the DiamondIQ model had opened with Boston as a 54 percent favorite. The Orioles ultimately rendered that pre-game edge meaningless, finishing with a 100 percent win probability as the Red Sox failed to convert in the late innings.
The decisive swings in win probability came at both ends of the game. Willson Contreras delivered the single biggest momentum shift of the afternoon, a third-inning home run off Jeisson Cabrera that added 21.4 percent to Boston's win probability and headlined a five-run frame that briefly gave the Red Sox firm control. Baltimore answered in the fifth and sixth, with the Orioles pushing across four runs in the top of the fifth and three more in the top of the sixth. Jud Fabian's groundout in the top of the sixth, off Jacob Webb, added 13.8 percent to Baltimore's probability, reflecting how critical that sequence was in sealing the Red Sox's late-inning fate. Cameron Foster then protected the lead in the eighth, inducing a Max Ferguson groundout that swung win probability 16.5 points toward Baltimore, and Alex Pham closed the door in the ninth, striking out Isaiah Jackson for an 18.8 percent swing before fanning Nazzan Zanetello to end the game.
Among Baltimore's top performers by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, Heston Kjerstad led all hitters with a WPA of plus-19.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.7, narrowly edging Contreras, who finished at plus-21.9 percent WPA despite playing for the losing side. Nate Baez added plus-18.8 percent WPA for the Orioles. On the pitching side, Cameron Foster was the clear standout, accumulating plus-23.3 percent WPA, with Tyron Guerrero contributing plus-14.0 percent and Anthony Nunez adding plus-9.7 percent in support of Baltimore's narrow victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.